Falling output amid rising demand from the local auto industry would force the world's fifth biggest rubber producer to increase overseas purchases of the tyre making material.
That could support international prices that plunged more than 30 percent this year on worries over a slowing economy in top buyer China, with Indian natural rubber prices touching a five-year low earlier this month.
"A few farmers have given up tapping. They won't resume unless prices recover substantially," N. Dharmaraj, chief executive at Harrisons Malayalam Ltd, said.
"Production will be down by at least 10 percent. Prices are not encouraging farmers to increase tapping,” he added.
The spot price of India's most traded RSS-4 rubber (ribbed smoked sheet) has fallen over a quarter so far in 2014 to 12,250 rupees (USD 200) per 100 kg at the major market of Kottayam in the southwestern state of Kerala.
"Production usually peaks in the December quarter, but this year farmers are not interested in tapping. If we lose production now, it can't be compensated for in the March quarter," said George Valy, President of the Indian Rubber Dealers' Federation.
India's natural rubber production dropped 7.6 percent to 844,000 tonnes in the 2013/14 crop year, which ended last March.
In the first half of the year that started in April, the country's output fell 2.3 percent from a year ago to 337,000 tonnes, while consumption rose by 3.6 percent to 509,085 tonnes, according to the state-run Rubber Board.
A senior official at the Board said it would be forced to revise down an earlier forecast that put production at 885,000 tonnes this year.
That could support international prices that plunged more than 30 percent this year on worries over a slowing economy in top buyer China, with Indian natural rubber prices touching a five-year low earlier this month.
"A few farmers have given up tapping. They won't resume unless prices recover substantially," N. Dharmaraj, chief executive at Harrisons Malayalam Ltd, said.
"Production will be down by at least 10 percent. Prices are not encouraging farmers to increase tapping,” he added.
The spot price of India's most traded RSS-4 rubber (ribbed smoked sheet) has fallen over a quarter so far in 2014 to 12,250 rupees (USD 200) per 100 kg at the major market of Kottayam in the southwestern state of Kerala.
"Production usually peaks in the December quarter, but this year farmers are not interested in tapping. If we lose production now, it can't be compensated for in the March quarter," said George Valy, President of the Indian Rubber Dealers' Federation.
India's natural rubber production dropped 7.6 percent to 844,000 tonnes in the 2013/14 crop year, which ended last March.
In the first half of the year that started in April, the country's output fell 2.3 percent from a year ago to 337,000 tonnes, while consumption rose by 3.6 percent to 509,085 tonnes, according to the state-run Rubber Board.
A senior official at the Board said it would be forced to revise down an earlier forecast that put production at 885,000 tonnes this year.
Source:Latest News from State News
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